When it comes to American presidential elections, all we can say for certain is that it’s nigh-on impossible to predict their outcomes.
On innumerable occasions in the past, polls have suggested one result, when reality has delivered another.
However, if there’s one group of individuals who do tend to have their finger on the pulse when it comes to predicting a victor, it’s bookmakers, whose very livelihoods depend on getting it right.
This is a pattern we’ve seen time and again, yet, even the bookies don’t always call it correctly, as evidenced by the 2016 election. Beginning with odds of just 150/1, Donald Trump’s ascension caused a continual re-jigging of the numbers, with the figure having been dramatically slashed by the time he achieved his eventual victory.
Now, people are turning to the bookmakers for answers once more, but this time, they don’t want to know whether Trump will be elected as one of the most surprising presidents in history, but rather, whether he’ll be returned for a second stint.
Here’s what the experts have to say on the subject.
The odds are not in his favour
When it comes to the subject of President Donald Trump, once no more than a controversial television personality but today leader of one of the mightiest superpowers in the world, many still find it difficult to get their heads around his elevation to the White House.
Using arguably divisive policies to win a majority to his cause, Trump’s leadership has been one that will go down in history – but not necessarily for the right reasons. During his reign, this flaxen-haired, Twitter-addicted president has refused to tread the diplomatic line of his predecessors, instead openly, and frequently, airing his opinions on topics both large and small.
Oddly, it is this, in part, that has cemented his support. For those who voted him in, Trump is a representative of the hard-working, grass-roots American, unafraid to speak his mind or hide his views in order to win over his detractors. For those who voted against him, however, their ire has only grown in the intervening four years, with his policies often polarising and his outspoken statements often unwelcome.
So where does this leave him in the lead up to the 2020 presidential race? According to Paddy Power, who have been providing odds on the US presidential election, Trump’s chances of being returned to power are looking less than healthy, with odds of a dramatic 5/6 on him not being re-elected.
A turning tide
While Donald Trump’s time in power has often proven controversial, support for the current US president has held relatively steady throughout the preceding four years, but it is recent events that may lead to the end of his tenure.
Indeed, many blame the American president’s response to global crises for his rapidly declining popularity and, certainly, it seems that Trump’s chances of being returned are waning at what would – only months earlier – have been a surprising speed.
This is perhaps primarily due to the effects on the economy, which has always been an area of strength for Trump and touted by him as his premier achievement. Whether this may, therefore, mean the end for the president remains to be seen, but certainly, there are previous candidates who have come back from the brink.
As it stands now, however, both betting books and public sentiment are somewhat in accord; that the likelihood of President Trump serving a second term appears increasingly unlikely.