The Speaker
Sunday, 21 July 2024 – 09:26

The week ahead: previewing a week in politics

After the European Union agreed to a limited extension to the Brexit deadline, the Prime Minister is expected to possibly put her deal to the Commons for a third time on Tuesday, with it being hoped it could perform better.

However, it is still unlikely that Theresa May can pass her deal, with DUP votes still uncommitted and likely solid opposition from the SNP and the Labour Party.

If it fails to pass then the UK is set to leave two weeks after the initial date of March 29th, with the extra time enabling both parties to tie up the no deal loose ends.

However, should the withdrawal agreement miraculously pass at the third time of asking, the UK will leave on May 22nd, with the additional time allowing the tying up of legislation to make sure the transition from EU member to a non-member is smooth.

If the deal fails to pass, don’t necessarily expect us to leave on no deal, as the government will likely return once again to seek the minor adjustments that could see the deal pass or Parliament could pass a counter offer, accepting a version of the deal with minor changes that allow it the votes to pass.

In this case, it would be on the EU to accept these changes and for two separate bills to be reconciled, but perhaps the chances of this route being taken are minimal given that cross-party talks attempting to solve the Brexit deadlock have largely broken up without any agreements thus far.

Another much talked about the possibility for the coming week is that the Prime Minister throw in the towel, being replaced in the interim by a member of her cabinet to see through the Brexit process.

This largely comes from after the Peoples Vote march last Saturday, that saw around 1 million people calling for a second referendum, with many of those present openly calling for May’s resignation.

This has gained traction in recent days with supposed crisis talks occurring over the weekend at Chequers, with it being largely suggested that the Prime Minister was fighting for her job.

However, it seems extremely unlikely that May will resign in the coming week, but perhaps even less likely is that of a Peoples Vote, despite Saturday’s march.

There remains no appetite for it in Downing Street, so the announcement of such a vote in the coming week is close to zero.

Around the Globe

Travelling across to Washington DC, we can expect a slow dripping of information about the recently completed Special Counsel report into the Trump campaign’s alleged collusion with Russia.

Over this weekend it was announced by Trump’s attorney general that there was no direct collusion, but details of the report are still yet to enter the public domain.

Although it is unlikely we will ever know the full extent of the report, given the leakiness of the Trump administration during his tenure, the report that now sits with his attorney general will not remain entirely under wraps, we wait to see the details of Special Counsel Robert Muller’s findings.

Moving back to Europe, Ukraine heads to the polls on Sunday, tasked with creating a new government, in what is being called an extremely dirty election.

With the elections under a week away, the outcome already seems largely secure, with a top-two runoff largely sewn up by the major candidates; ex-prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are currently leading the way and are almost certain to face off against each other next month in the runoff.

However, the election has been mired with myriad accusations of dirty tricks that even Nixon would turn his nose at. Everything from paying off voters to concerning donors, even the Nixon favourite of wiretapping is alleged to be widespread.

This is nothing new for Ukraine who has a long history of problematic elections – with previous leaders being forced out over fraudulent electoral practices, however, will be extremely concerning as it will likely compound the recent political issues in the nation that have seen it withdraw from the world stage and collapse economically.

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