The Speaker
Wednesday, 24 July 2024 – 21:31

The first precincts to report are indicative of a Biden win

Some early results are starting to come in from Kentucky and Indiana – the states whose polls closed first – and they are looking positive for Biden.

Wabash County, Indiana, which was amongst the first to declare, has fallen heavily for Trump, by 70-28. However, in 2016 the result was 72-22 suggesting that Biden has gained significant ground on his Republican rival and that Democratic voter enthusiasm is up.

Polling throughout the day has also suggested that the result might favour Biden, with swing-state voters seeming to favour the Democratic candidate.

In Florida, around 3.9 million registered Democratic voters had turned out for Biden, whilst 4.1 million had turned out for Trump. This would suggest it favours Trump, however, 2.6 million unregistered or non-party affiliated voters also cast their ballots in Florida, with it looking likely that these voters are splitting predominantly towards Biden. 

However, with the first Florida results being reported (at around 20%) Donald Trump has a slight lead, of around 50-48. This is likely to be election day voting, which Trump is believed to have an advantage in, with many Biden voters casting their ballots by post or casting them early. The full Florida results will likely come in within the next few hours.”>November


The large number of Democratic registered voters turning out for Biden in the sunshine state suggests that his base are enthusiastic and showing up in significant numbers, with turnout likely being the most important factor in deciding the swing states.

There have already been some results called, with Kentucky and Indiana both being called for Trump, which would give him 18 Electoral College votes. These were always going to go to Trump, however, there have also been suggestions that Biden is making up significant ground in these states, which is indicative of Trump voters either not showing up, or a large scale shift towards Biden across the board.

Vermont has also been called, for Biden; there are just three Electoral College votes there and it was always going to vote Democratic, with the party winning it in ever election since 1988.

Some have been suggesting that the early results are even more favourable for Biden than the polls suggested and that the election could be a landslide, leading to it being called as early as 10 pm Eastern Standard Time, or by 3 am in the UK.

However, with so few precincts reporting, results night is far from over and there are likely to be many more twists and turns before a clear winner emerges.

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