The Speaker
Thursday, 18 April 2024 – 21:54

Will the election solve Brexit?

In the run-up to the General Election, we’re answering questions commonly searched for about the election, and asked on Twitter tagging @speakerpolitics. Tweet us now to ask your question.


Will the election solve Brexit?

The simple answer is that nobody really knows – the longer answer, here it goes;

Boris Johnson said before the election was approved that he felt it was necessary to break the Brexit deadlock. In calling an election, Mr Johnson will have been hoping that the Conservatives can win a large majority in the House of Commons. Such a majority would likely allow him to pass his Brexit deal through Parliament and see the UK leave the EU in the near future.

However, it’s not quite that simple. The country is divided and so there is no guarantee of a majority for Mr Johnson and the Conservatives. Alliances between remain and leave supporting parties could in-fact leave to further division and no clear way forward on the Brexit issue.


What is the Remain Alliance?

The Remain Alliance is an electoral pact between the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Sinn Féin. The pact is designed to increase the likelihood of pro-EU and pro-remain candidates being elected in constituencies across the UK, by ensuring that in certain areas, the parties do not stand against each other and split the vote. Splitting the vote between two remain-backing parties could see a leave-backing party such as the Conservatives win more seats, and this is what the alliance aims to avoid.

The tactical move by the parties is set to affect 60 UK constituencies, though there is of course question over whether it can be successful.


What is the Leave Alliance?

The Leave Alliance is not exactly an alliance, rather a policy decision by the Brexit Party. Nigel Farage has announced that the Brexit Party will not stand in seats at the upcoming general election that were won by the Conservatives in 2017, in an attempt to prevent remain-backing parties winning seats where the leave-vote might have been split.

Nigel Farage had called on Boris Johnson to form an alliance with his newly formed Brexit Party, a message endorsed by US President Donald Trump. However, Mr Johnson refused to enter such an alliance with any party and has denied claims that he agreed to one with the Brexit Party.


What does this mean for the election result and Brexit?

What the impact of the two different alliances will be is uncertain, but if they both work to some extent, then we might be looking at another hung Parliament, where no party has an overall majority. Early voting intention polls have shown the Conservatives to be ahead, however, there is still a month to go until the election and polls may change favourably or unfavourably for the party before then.

For Brexit, it really depends on the election result. If the Conservatives win a large majority, we would expect to see Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal being pushed through Parliament in the coming months. A minority government could result in the continuation of gridlock on the Brexit issue, and another party in government could see a completely different way forward for Brexit – Labour has said they want to agree a better deal with the EU before taking it into a People’s Vote, whereas the Lib Dems want to stop Brexit altogether.

Whatever happens, the election won’t magically solve Brexit. No matter the outcome of the election, it seems almost certain that for one reason or another, Brexit will continue to dominate the news headlines for many years to come.

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