Thursday, 18 August 2022 – 20:04

Which areas look likely to change tier at the next review?

The next England-wide review of tier allocations is set to take place this Wednesday.

There are currently 4 tiers of restrictions in England, with Tier 4 including the tightest restrictions. Most parts of England have seen rising Coronavirus case rates recently and there are fears that the new variant of Coronavirus in the UK could see the situation become out of control. Given this, it is likely that more areas in England will face tighter restrictions following the next review of tier allocations.

Based on our data analysis, we’ve identified and included in this article a list of areas which we believe may be most likely to face tighter restrictions.

Our analysis is primarily based on the rate of the virus in different areas per 100,000 of local populations and also the recent level of growth in these case rates. While this can give a good indication of the likely tiering decisions, it should be recognised that the Government also looks at other factors when making decisions. The number of patients over the age of 60 testing positive for the virus and hospital capacity are also important factors that can impact tiering decisions.


Which areas look most at risk of moving into Tier 4?

The following upper-tier local authority areas look likely to move into Tier 4, according to our data analysis. We’ve listed below the current tier of the areas, the area name, their 7-day case rate up to 23 December and why we believe they may move into Tier 4 soon.

Tier 3Wolverhampton418.8High case rate following recent growth
Tier 3Hartlepool417.5High case rate following recent growth
Tier 3Blackburn with Darwen345.4High case rate following recent growth
Tier 3Sandwell340.4High case rate following recent growth
Tier 3Birmingham321.1High case rate following recent growth
Tier 3Walsall307.9High case rate following recent growth
Tier 3Warrington304.3High case rate following recent growth
Tier 3Dudley303.5High case rate following recent growth
Tier 3Northamptonshire300.6High case rate following recent growth

The following areas have lower case rates than the areas listed above, but may still be at risk of entering Tier 4 due to recent growth in cases.

Tier 3County Durham263.7Recent growth in case rate in area and surrounding areas
Tier 3Trafford246.5Large recent growth in case rate
Tier 3Gateshead226.7Large recent growth in case rate and growth in surrounding areas
Tier 3Somerset223Recent growth in case rate and near badly affected areas
Tier 3Isle of Wight207.4Very large recent growth in case rate
Tier 3Stockport200.7Recent growth in case rate and near badly affected areas


Which other areas could see increased restrictions?

Case rates have risen recently in nearly all upper-tier local authority areas, meaning much of the country could soon facer tighter restrictions or even a nationwide lockdown.

In particular, the below areas have all experienced a significant rise in case rates recently and look likely to face increased restrictions, potentially under Tier 3. We’ve listed below the current tier of the areas, the area name and their 7-day case rate up to 23 December.

Tier 2Cumbria220.6
Tier 2Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole218.8
Tier 2York218.4
Tier 2Worcestershire218.4
Tier 2Wirral209.6
Tier 2Liverpool203.4
Tier 2Herefordshire, County of198.1
Tier 2St. Helens195.5
Tier 2Knowsley188.3
Tier 2Plymouth178.9
Tier 2North Yorkshire174.7
Tier 2Sefton173.7
Tier 2Bath and North East Somerset158.3
Tier 2Wiltshire155.4
Tier 2Dorset120.2


Could there be a Tier 5?

Rumours have been circling of tighter restrictions for current Tier 4 areas, potentially labelled Tier 5. There are concerns that Tier 4 may not be effective enough in controlling the virus, especially if school pupils return to the classroom in January. 

Potentially, a fifth tier of restrictions could be created, which would likely look more like the lockdown we saw in March, with schools closed in affected areas.

Based on the currently available data, it would appear that if a Tier 5 was to be created, the areas included would likely be London, Essex and potentially some surrounding areas such as Milton Keynes.


Could any areas move to a lower tier?

It seems unlikely that any areas will move to lower tiers in the upcoming review due to rises in Coronavirus cases in almost all parts of the country.


Our analysis is based off publicly available data from The analysis has been created for information purposes only and we do not guarantee its accuracy. Data is only displayed up to 23 Decemebr due to uncertainty over the level of testing during the Christmas period.

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