Monday, 4 July 2022 – 12:54

Data Focus: Coronavirus case rates remain high, despite recent decreases

Coronavirus cases have fallen across most of England recently, though lockdown measures can be expected to stay in place for some time to come.

According to data analysis by The Speaker, COVID-19 case rates have fallen in over 90% of upper-tier local authority (UTLA) areas in England in the 7-day period ending 18 January, compared to the previous 7-day period. However, while cases have been falling in most areas, around 56% of UTLA areas in England still have a case rate of over 400 cases per 100,000 people.

While there is further for case rates to fall, the reductions indicate that lockdown measures are likely working and this has also been suggested by scientists and government ministers recently. However, UK deaths within 28 days of a COVID-19 test continue to remain very high, making any easing of lockdown measures in the near future seemingly unlikely. 

On Friday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also revealed that some data now suggests that the new variant of COVID-19 first identified in the UK may be more deadly – though the data is early data and further work is taking place to clarify this.

Click through the slides above for some key data and graphs, or read more analysis below based on the latest Coronavirus data.

 

UTLA areas with rising cases

The following upper-tier local authority areas had a higher case rate in the seven day period ending 18 January 2021, compared to the previous seven day period.

UTLA AreaPercentage Increase
Northumberland12.0%
Leicester7.1%
Middlesbrough6.5%
Dudley5.5%
Plymouth3.8%
Newcastle upon Tyne2.6%
Solihull1.2%
Coventry0.9%
Barnsley0.7%
Walsall0.6%
Redcar and Cleveland0.5%
Dorset0.3%
Shropshire0.1%

 

The 20 UTLA areas with the highest prevalence of COVID-19 cases

The following upper-tier local authority areas had the highest rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in the seven-day period ending 18 January 2021.

UTLA AreaCases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people
Knowsley1014.83
Slough940.89
Sandwell899.98
Wolverhampton874.48
Hounslow853.70
Ealing844.34
Brent835.73
Barking and Dagenham824.31
Newham820.09
Halton761.15
St. Helens747.02
Walsall741.91
Liverpool723.63
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole722.69
Redbridge704.41
Croydon703.37
Birmingham691.53
Luton689.97
Thurrock687.16
Dudley683.16

 

UTLA areas with the largest decreases in cases

The following upper-tier local authority areas had the largest decreases in their case rate in the seven day period ending 18 January 2021, compared to the previous seven day period.

UTLA AreaPercentage Decrease
Isle of Wight-46.4%
Bexley-37.7%
Barking and Dagenham-36.9%
Kensington and Chelsea-36.5%
Tower Hamlets-36.0%
Bracknell Forest-35.9%
York-35.4%
Windsor and Maidenhead-35.2%
Thurrock-35.0%
Sefton-34.9%

 

The 20 UTLA areas with the lowest prevalence of COVID-19 cases

The following upper-tier local authority areas had the lowest rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in the seven-day period ending 18 January 2021.

UTLA AreaCases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people
North East Lincolnshire112.18
North Lincolnshire145.68
Devon161.15
East Riding of Yorkshire175.57
North Tyneside195.27
Calderdale206.66
Rutland207.88
Torbay214.29
City of Kingston upon Hull218.26
Gloucestershire222.74
Wakefield232.84
Lincolnshire237.25
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly237.72
Barnsley238.19
Sheffield239.89
Kirklees244.44
Doncaster267.72
Northumberland272.61
North Yorkshire273.28
West Berkshire277.06

 

As we approach the end of the third week since another national lockdown was announced in England, there are signs that lockdown measures are working in reducing cases. Many are asking when lockdown measures will end, and for much of the country, the lockdown has effectively already lasted longer than three weeks, due to the introduction of Tier 4 measures for many areas in December. However, due to there being a delay between people testing positive for COVID-19 and being hospitalised, there are still significant pressures on the NHS, and these are expected to continue over the coming weeks. 

Exactly when the national lockdown will end is unknown. A review of the measures is expected to take place around the 15 February, by which point the Government is hoping to have given 15 million people their first dose of a vaccine against COVID-19 – however, it is widely expected that the lockdown will continue beyond this point, likely into March. When lockdown measures do ease, schools are expected to open first, with hospitality outlets set to be the last to reopen.

 

 


Data referenced in this article is publicly available from coronavirus.data.gov.uk. Where data is only included up to 18 January, this is to try to ensure accuracy, due to there being a delay between virus tests taking place and cases been recorded. Data may be updated – the inclusion of data here and our analysis is based on the available data at the time of writing. Our analysis has been created for information purposes only and we cannot guarantee its accuracy. 

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