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A Analysis - With No Bias & No Jargon


Will Boris Johnson lose his seat?

In the run-up to the General Election, we're answering questions commonly searched for about the election, and asked on Twitter tagging @speakerpolitics. Tweet us now to ask your question.

 

For a UK Prime Minister to lose their seat in an election their party wins is unheard of and has never happened before - but in this election, it seems much more likely.

Boris Johnson is the Member of Parliament (MP) for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, a constituency with an electorate of around 72,000 people in Greater London. The constituency was created in 2010 and has ever-since elected a Conservative, including Boris Johnson since 2015 (before which he was Mayor of London).

In 2017, Boris Johnson won 50.8% of the vote in his constituency, a majority of around 5,000 votes. So why is it being suggested that he could lose his seat?

In the grand scheme of things, 5,000 votes is not that many. A lot has changed since 2017 and so there is no guarantee that Mr Johnson will retain his seat.  

Brunel University London sits in Mr Johnson's constituency and could see large numbers of students trying to oust him. His main opponent, Labour's Ali Reza Milani was also a graduate of Brunel University and is a former President of the Union of Brunel Students, which could help him in his quest to defeat the current Prime Minister.

Mr Johnson may also face problems due to him spending little time in the constituency as he oversees his party's overall election campaign. Last week, Boris Johnson was accused of thinking he is “above accountability” after he refused to attend his constituency's own hustings event. He recently also refused to attend a debate on climate change, and so far has not agreed to an interview with the BBC's Andrew Neil ahead of the election.

And then there is the not so significant problem of all the other candidate's standing in Boris Johnson's constituency - including Lord Buckethead. The 12 candidates standing in the constituency include;

Independent Count Binface
Monster Raving Loony Lord Buckethead  
Independent Norma Burke  
UKIP Geoffrey Courtenay  
Liberal Democrats Joanne Humphreys  
Conservative Boris Johnson  
Green Mark Keir  
Labour Ali Milani  
  Bobby Smith  
  William Tobin  
Independent Alfie Utting  
  Yace "Interplanetary Time Lord" Yogenstein

 

While nobody is expecting Yace "Interplanetary Time Lord" Yogenstein to win the seat, they may help in taking votes away from Boris Johnson.

On the other hand, the constituency has traditionally voted for Conservative candidates, and recent elections have tended to show that voters like having a Prime Minister as their MP.

If Boris Johnson did get unseated and the Conservatives won the election, it really would be one major story and would put the UK in unchartered waters. In the UK, you have to be an MP to be the Prime Minister, so unless Mr Johnson could succeed in a by-election, perhaps in another seat, he would have to stand down and there would be another leadership election in his party.

So, who knows yet what will happen at the polls on Thursday, but the constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is certainly one to watch.

 

Photo Credit: Chatham House via Flickr under licence (CC BY 2.0)

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