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This week in politics: a preview of what might happen

The upcoming week in politics is unfortunately set to be dominated by Brexit once again, although it is likely to be far less cut and dry than last week. The government have suggested that they are likely to put the withdrawal agreement before Parliament for a third time following several Conservative MP’s signalling their intent to support the deal if a new vote were held, however, the party has stated that this is largely conditional on gaining support from the DUP.

Negotiations between the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionist Party have been ongoing and are likely to continue into the new week. If an agreement can be reached then the government will likely put it to Parliament again, although this may still not be enough to gain a majority.

However, the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn signalled that he would be prepared to support an amendment that would accept the Prime Minister's deal, should it be put to the public in a People’s Vote for approval.

This is largely unlikely to materialise, given the government’s aversion to a second referendum – despite the fact that the question would not be a second in-out vote. What would be more likely to unfold is a break-down in talks, which would see the government frantically return to Brussels asking for more changes.

The government are set to return to Brussels this Tuesday, as negotiations with the DUP are ongoing, it is unclear as to whether the talks will centre on gaining support for an extension, or whether it is likely to result in some more assurances over the backstop which would help the Prime Minister pass her withdrawal agreement at the third time of asking.

Again though, this is unlikely to bring forth much change, with the government likely sounding out the potential support in Brussels for an extension to Article 50. Given the lack of support in parliament for a no-deal Brexit, the government are likely to request an extension, with a bill being potentially put to parliament later in the week or the following week.

 

Elsewhere, and America is again set to see turmoil, following Trump’s veto of a bill that aimed to bring his national emergency to an end. Given the controversial nature of his calling of a national emergency – resulting from the fact that there is no actual emergency on the southern border – it is likely that Congress will attempt to override his veto.

Whether this will succeed will depend on whether Republican congresspeople can back the Democrats and override the veto, which would signal an end to the emergency – which has seen greater resources sent to the southern border to combat illegal immigration.

The build-up to the 2020 election is also likely to hot up in the week, with it looking increasingly certain that former Vice President Joe Biden will announce a run. It looked likely that he would do so over the weekend during a speech, but Obama’s VP stopped short of announcing his run. Perhaps this was to gauge media reaction should he commit, but if he is going to run, expect him to announce over the next seven days.

 

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